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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.